Who will be the first celebrity eliminated from ABC's Dancing With the Stars this season?

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This fall, 13 celebs will compete for the Mirrorball trophy in season 21 of Dancing With the Stars. But one celebrity has to have the unfortunate distinction of being the first one eliminated. So who will the unlucky contestant be this year?

Let's break it down by celebrity type.

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Obvious frontrunners / ringers:

Unless they colossally screw up, these celebrities have an easy time sailing through the first few weeks of competition. Celebs like Nick Carter, Bindi Irwin, Alexa PenaVega, Carlos PenaVega, Andy Grammer and Tamar Braxton all have performing experience, big fanbases or popular partners, and it's hard to see any of them being near the bottom of the pack.

Middle-of-the road celebs:

These celebrities may not be as popular as others in the competition, and don't have much prior experience, so they will have to do above average to avoid the elimination block. These celebs include Victor Espinoza, Hayes Grier, Alek Skarlatos and Kim Zolciak. Their success in the competition will likely be dependent on the quality of their dances.

Older group:

As a general rule, older celebrities on Dancing With the Stars tend to be less technically proficient than their competitors. They often receive some of the lowest scores, but a lucky few have won over the general public through their personalities, allowing them to get further in the competition. This year, we have Gary Busey, Paula Deen and Chaka Khan. While all three are likely to have fanbases, they may have to perform above and beyond people's expectations to avoid the early week cuts.

History would dictate that a middle-of-the-road or older celebrity will be the first person eliminated, but anything could happen.

Take our poll below to cast your vote for who you think will be eliminated first.

Dancing With the Stars season 21 premieres Monday at 8 p.m. ET/PT on ABC.

Tags
Dancing with the Stars, Reality TV, ABC