Iowa Caucus 2016: 4 Things To Remember As The Results Come In
After an unbearably early start to this election cycle (including 11 debates!) we've finally come to the 2016 Iowa Caucus, the first political showdown in the 2016 presidential election. Tonight, starting at 7 p.m. central, Iowa's Democrats and Republicans will be the first primary voters to give their say on who should be each party's nominee for president.
While all the major news networks feverously report the results throughout the night, here are some things to know:
It's Not Like Other Primary Elections
The Iowa Caucus has been the first stop in America's annual presidential primary journey for over 40 years and it's kind of weird. By definition, a caucus is a party meeting rather than just a voting situation. People will gather in Iowa's more than 1600 voting precincts, where local party leaders will give speeches and outline the party's agenda. After the speeches, party members will either vote for the candidates by a show of hands or secret ballet (how the Republicans do it) OR standing around in groups for designated spots for each candidate with members working to convince others to join or leave groups (how the Democrats do it). So tonight's voters have a greater likelihood of being swayed and may even change their minds from how they told pollsters they would vote.
Winning Doesn't Guarantee the Nomination
Winning in Iowa is big, but it's not THAT big a deal. Historically, Iowa Caucus winners have a 40% to 50% chance of nabbing the nominations (it varies by party). Name of those who DIDN'T win in Iowa, but ended up winning the party nomination and then the White House include Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
It's About The Lower Performing Candidates
There are so many Republicans currently in the race that the debates have actually been divided into JV (lower poll performers) and varsity (higher polling candidates) groups. The Iowa Caucus indicated which candidate, especially on a crowded field, is starting to gain ground and which aren't. A low performance in Iowa, on top of already low polling, can lead to evaporating donor money and/or the realization to call it quits. After Iowa, expect to see some candidates announce they're ending their campaigns. BUT candidates in the third or fourth slots showing momentum to take them all the way to the nomination. It's what happened with John McCain in 2008, Bill Clinton in 1992 and George H. W. Bush in 1988
There's Still 7 Months to Go Until the Conventions
The conventions, where the parties formally pick and announce their nominees aren't until July. Yeah, let that sink in for a bit.
