Presidential Polls 2012: Obama Ahead Of Romney By Three Points, New Data Shows
The confusing science of presidential polls continues.
After Mitt Romney revitalized his campaign with a successful debate performance, he took a bump in the polls that put him ahead of President Barack Obama. But a new poll shows Obama has closed up that lead and overtaken Romney yet again.
The most recent poll, a joint effort between The Washington Post and ABC News, shows Obama ahead of Romney by 3 points among likely voters and by 7 points among registered voters.
But that poll represents only one viewpoint. While Obama is ahead in several polls, including one from Politico, Romney has the advantage in polls from Rasmussen, Gallup and Fox News. Real Clear Politics' poll average, based on aggregated data from all national polls, shows the two candidates in a dead heat with 47.3 percent each.
The New York Times' Jason Silver outlined the mixed messages of poll numbers on his blog Monday: "There have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on Election Day itself. But I am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself - or he doesn't know what he's doing."
The race for the White House tightened up considerably following the first presidential debate earlier this month, when Obama seemed listless and agitated compared to Romney's spirited performance. Before the debate, Obama had been enjoying a comfortable lead nationally.
Cliff Young, a pollster for Ispos, said the debate changed Romney's image in the minds of many Americans, and that explains Romney's upswing in polling.
"It's a much tighter race and Romney became much more presidential in people's eyes," Young said. "Things are probably back to where they should be."
