Presidential Polls 2012: Early Post-Debate Numbers Show No Bump For Obama
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, Mitt Romney is enjoying the most comfortable lead either candidate has had in weeks, but the suppliers of that data are questioning how accurate it is.
The latest numbers from national polling firm Rasmussen, which were released Wednesday, show Romney with a four point lead over his Democratic challenger, President Barack Obama.
In that poll, Romney has the support of 50 percent of voters surveyed, while Obama lags behind at 46 percent. Of the remaining respondents included in the poll, 2 percent prefer a different candidate and 2 percent are still undecided about what vote they will cast on Nov. 6.
But while Rasmussen's daily analysis acknowledged the significance of Romney's large lead, the polling firm did say the gap between the two candidates could be inflated.
"This is the second straight day with Romney enjoying a 4-point advantage," the polling tracker update said. "Prior to that, with the exception of the convention bounces, neither candidate had led by more than three points for months. However, it is not clear whether this represents a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise."
Rasmussen officials believe their polling methodology, which tabulates results based on three-day rolling averages, may be skewing the data, and they anticipate the numbers may normalize once the pollster eliminates from consideration all interviews conducted before the third presidential debate.
"These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, approximately two-thirds of the interviews for today's update were completed before the end of Monday night's presidential debate. The single night of interviews conducted after the debate is similar to the two-point advantage Romney has enjoyed recently rather than the current four-point spread. As always, caution should be used when interpreting a single night of data in a tracking poll," the site said.
