2012 Polls Incumbent Rule: Will Old Political Trend Hurt Obama?
With only four days until the 2012 presidential election, most polling data across the country shows President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in a statistical deadlock.
As political commentators kick their attempts to predict the election's outcome into overdrive, many pundits are speculating that Obama may fall victim to an old political trend called the "incumbent rule."
The incumbent rule, explained in detail in this post from PollingReport.com, says that evidence from previous elections shows that incumbent candidates polling at less than 50 percent are likely to drop in the polls and lose the election in the final days of the campaign.
The theory says that the reason behind the incumbent rule phenomenon is undecided voters. According to the evidence, undecided voters rarely split down the middle, and more often they tend to vote for the candidate running against the incumbent.
"An incumbent leading with less than 50 percent (against one challenger) is frequently in trouble; how much depends on how much less than 50 percent," the rule's logic says. "A common pattern has been for incumbents ahead with 50% or less to end up losing."
Karl Rove, former deputy chief of staff for President George W. Bush, wrote about how the phenomenon could effect Obama on Election Day in a column for the Wall Street Journal.
"The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2 percent share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets," Rove wrote. "For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49 percent in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7 percent on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48 percent in the last Gallup; he got 49.2 percent at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37 percent in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5 percent in the balloting."
If Rove's idea is right, Obama's small boost on Election Day may not be enough to allow him to overtake Romney.
The theory behind the incumbent rule centers around undecided voters, and the idea is that the undecided are not undecided about both candidates, but instead they're only unsure about the incumbent.
"It seems that undecided voters are not literally undecided, not straddling the fence unable to make a choice - the traditional interpretation," the Polling Report analysis said. "An early decision to vote for the incumbent is easier because voters know incumbents best. It helps to think of undecided voters as undecided about the incumbent, as voters who question the incumbent's performance in office. Most or all voters having trouble with this decision appear to end up deciding against the incumbent."
