Obama vs. Romney Polls 2012, Rasmussen Reports Reveal 'Unpredictable End'
Most reports suggest that Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are tied or separated by 1-4 points in their likelihoods of winning the election, and a new report revealed that Nov. 6 might bring an "unpredictable end to a very predictable election."
As of Saturday, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll revealed that the presidential candidates were tied with 48 percent of support from voters nationwide. One percent voted for a third-party candidate and 2 percent were still undecided.
The report added that 46 percent were certain they will vote for Romney, while 45 percent are sure they will vote for the president.
"It's somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House," Scott Rasmussen wrote in his weekly newspaper column.
In his latest public commentary, posted on Friday, Nov. 2, Rasmussen analyzed the close race, why it has been so for some time now and the "unpredictable end" it brings. He noted that for one thing, the president's job approval stayed between 47 to 51 percent all year.
"That, by itself, virtually guarantees a close election," he wrote.
In terms of convincing voters that they know what the nation needs regarding the economy, the candidates have also been neck and neck.
Two national surveys of 1,000 likely U.S. voters were conducted and 48 percent of those surveyed said they trust Republicans more when it comes to economy, while 44 percent had more faith in Democrats. The two parties are tied when it comes to the war in Afghanistan but Democrats have more trust from voters in education and energy policy; Republicans have an advantage in taxes, health care, immigration, national security, Social Security and government ethics.
The close race should have been predicted or expected, according to Rasmussen's report. For example, he noted that two states won by Obama in the 2008 election - Indiana and North Carolina - are now said to be avid Romney supporters. Additionally, all swing-states, or those considered "the most competitive" for this election, were won by Obama back in 2008.
"Those who don't like uncertainty should focus on the congressional races," Rasmussen said. "But the race for the White House remains close because of the economy. Most Americans do not feel better off than they were four years ago, but most are not feeling worse off either."
Rasmussen Reports has been doing public opinion polling since 2003. For the final week of the campaign, they will conduct 1,000 survey interviews each night - as opposed to the 500 they have been doing per night. A candidate needs a total of 270 Electoral College votes in order to win the presidency.
