Presidential Polls 2012: Obama, Romney Tied; Race May Influence Election's Outcome
The 2012 presidential election has nearly reached its end, and with only one more day to go until America chooses its next leader, the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is as tight as ever.
Obama and his Republican challenger have been either tied or within two to three percentage points of on another for weeks, and on the day before Election Day the candidates are in a deadlock, according to data from national polling firm Rasmussen.
In that poll, both Obama and Romney have support from 49 percent of registered voters surveyed nationwide. Of the remaining respondents included in the poll, 1 percent plans to vote for a different candidate on Nov. 6, and 1 percent is still undecided about how they will cast their ballot on Election Day.
With such a tight race as the election winds down, just about any small factor could influence the outcome of the campaign. One factor that will definitely be at play during Election Day, according to Rasmussen, is the racial make-up of Americans who turn up at the polls and vote.
"One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate," the Rasmussen report said. "In 2008, approximately 74 percent of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58 percent of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters."
Because of the way racial lines can often dictate how voters will cast their ballot, Rasmussen's report very clearly lays out the scenario that faces Obama and Romney as they spend their final day campaigning.
"If the white turnout increases on Election Day, it will be very difficult for the president to win. If it decreases, it will be very difficult for him to lose," the report said.
