Exit Polls 2012: What To Watch For During Presidential Projections
As Election Day winds down in America, citizens and pundits alike are crawling the Internet and crunching data to predict a victor in the presidential race as soon as possible.
The first indicator of the results, before actual returns become official, will be the results of exit polls, which are conducted as voters leave the voting booth. But as the onslaught on exit poll results begins, there are a few things to know about the information and how to interpret it.
The first of that information is when exactly exit polling results will be available. Larry Rosen, president of Edison Research, which conducts the exit poll reported by most major media outlets, explained the time frame and said it is still too early for real results.
"Given the precautions we take, the chances are infinitesimal that you'll see correct information before 5 p.m.," Rosen said. "Networks are prohibited from releasing information that could be used to project the race until after polls have closed. It won't be until 7 p.m. that projections get the green light on the East Coast."
And even when the exit poll results do arrive, they may not necessarily reflect what the actual result will be when official returns arrive, according to Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling.
"We saw in 2004 that early results were wrong and saw that even as recently as the Wisconsin recall," Jensen said. "I know it's hard for people not to just want to eat every piece of information. A lot of time though, watching the first wave you're going to get burned."
The most important information that can be pulled from exit polls regards how different demographics are voting along racial, ethnic and socioeconomic lines, said David Flaherty, the CEO of polling firm Magellan Strategies.
"Here in Colorado, for example, Latinos were 13 percent of the vote in 2008," Flaherty said. "If it comes back at 5 pm, that they're 18 or 20 percent of the vote, that would be a key observation. Then the folks in Chicago are going to be extremely pleased. If we see it at 9 percent, it might cause the Romney folks to start thinking that group isn't as enthusiastic."
